MQ 3412 · ORD → CWA

departs 9:41 AM CT · arrives 10:51 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at CWA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CWA?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at CWA that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.75 in

CWA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3412 · ORD → CWA

Odds over time

How late will it get to CWA?