MQ 3414 · ORD → CMH

departs 7:18 AM CT · arrives 9:36 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into CMH at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.93 in

CMH (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3414 · ORD → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?