MQ 3425 · ORD → EVV

departs 3:03 PM CT · arrives 4:17 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at EVV more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EVV?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ EVV usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EVV

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.75 in

EVV (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling10,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3425 · ORD → EVV

Odds over time

How late will it get to EVV?