MQ 3430 · CID → ORD

departs 5:04 AM CT · arrives 6:17 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at CID that day

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ CID is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from CID are usually not late

Weather at each end

CID (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.51 in

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.96 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3430 · CID → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?