MQ 3449 · ORD → FAR

departs 9:40 AM CT · arrives 11:39 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at FAR more than 15 minutes late?

43% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAR?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.86 in

FAR (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3449 · ORD → FAR

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAR?