Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3458
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3458 · CID → ORD
departs 6:51 PM CT · arrives 8:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 21%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 29%
Tue 10/6 32%
Wed 10/7 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±5 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
16%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave CID more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
27%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
16%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.5 in of rain forecast at CID that day
↓
Other factors
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CID (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 1.50 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.86 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.