Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3458
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3458 · ORD → CID
departs 5:00 PM CT · arrives 6:21 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 21%
Mon 10/5 6%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?
65%
chance · ±1 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
65%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
31%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 64% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at CID more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to CID?
On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at CID that day
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↓
CID usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
CID (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.82 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.