MQ 3470 · XNA → ORD

departs 2:08 PM CT · arrives 4:02 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±1 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, 0.9 in of rain forecast at XNA that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ XNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

XNA (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.41 in

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.75 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3470 · XNA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?