MQ 3471 · MCI → DFW

departs 2:22 PM CT · arrives 4:15 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

83% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
12%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
26%
Over 2 hours late
24%
Cancelled
27%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.83 in

DFW (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.00 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3471 · MCI → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?