Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3472
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3472 · CWA → ORD
departs 5:42 AM CT · arrives 7:19 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Wed 9/30 14%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 8%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave CWA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
CWA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CWA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.04 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.