MQ 3475 · ORD → ATW

departs 10:11 AM CT · arrives 11:26 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts −38 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ATW?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at ATW that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ATW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

ATW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3475 · ORD → ATW

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATW?