MQ 3486 · ORD → JAX

departs 2:19 PM CT · arrives 5:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

74% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
26%
15–30 min late
35%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
31%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into JAX at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.20 in

JAX (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3486 · ORD → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?