MQ 3491 · LAN → ORD

departs 4:41 PM ET · arrives 4:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

69% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at LAN that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ LAN is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

LAN (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.92 in

ORD (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3491 · LAN → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?