Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3493
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3493 · ORD → AVL
departs 9:29 PM CT · arrives 12:23 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 25%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
67%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
67%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
44%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
67%
Yes 67%
No 33%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at AVL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +24 pts in 24h
+24 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to AVL?
On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
32%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
9pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Arrivals into AVL at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at AVL that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.74 in
AVL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.