MQ 3501 · ORD → LIT

departs 5:13 PM CT · arrives 7:02 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LIT?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ LIT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

LIT (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3501 · ORD → LIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIT?