MQ 3510 · ORD → LSE

departs 3:31 PM CT · arrives 4:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at LSE more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LSE?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi forecast at LSE that day

↓ LSE usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

LSE (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3510 · ORD → LSE

Odds over time

How late will it get to LSE?