MQ 3513 · DFW → FSM

departs 8:33 AM CT · arrives 9:56 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FSM?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 2.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at FSM that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip2.37 in

FSM (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.63 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3513 · DFW → FSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to FSM?