Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3514
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
MQ 3514 · STS → PHX
departs 1:00 PM PT · arrives 3:09 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 19%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.