Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3523
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3523 · FAR → ORD
departs 4:38 PM CT · arrives 6:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 15%
Mon 10/5 12%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
66%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
66%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 66% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Leave FAR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
34%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAR
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
FAR (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.