MQ 3548 · BGR → ORD

departs 6:00 PM ET · arrives 8:05 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
34%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at BGR that day

Weather at each end

BGR (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.93 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3548 · BGR → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?