Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3553
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
MQ 3553 · GRR → ORD
departs 2:35 PM ET · arrives 2:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 22%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 28%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
53%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 53% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at GRR that day
↓
GRR usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
GRR (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 1.30 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.