Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3553
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3553 · ORD → GRR
departs 11:56 AM CT · arrives 2:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 10%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at GRR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to GRR?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at GRR that day
↑
11am departures from ORD are often late
↓
GRR usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.19 in
GRR (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 1.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.