Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3559
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
MQ 3559 · ORD → GSP
departs 3:48 PM CT · arrives 6:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3 21%
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±5 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at GSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to GSP?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
3pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.96 in
GSP (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.