Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3561
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3561 · ORD → LIT
departs 7:59 PM CT · arrives 9:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?
75%
chance · ±0 pts
+19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
75%
Leave 15+ late
62%
Arrive 1h+ late
40%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
75%
Yes 75%
No 25%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Arrive at LIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +21 pts in 24h
+21 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LIT?
On time or early
24%
15–30 min late
33%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
32%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
7pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.74 in
LIT (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.