Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3564
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
MQ 3564 · GSP → ORD
departs 8:14 AM ET · arrives 9:31 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 26%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±6 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
GSP is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP
↓
8am departures from GSP are usually not late
Weather at each end
GSP (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.