MQ 3565 · ORD → PIA

departs 4:05 PM CT · arrives 5:04 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at PIA more than 15 minutes late?

62% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PIA?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 767 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at PIA that day

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ PIA usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.90 in

PIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.80 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3565 · ORD → PIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIA?