MQ 3565 · PIA → ORD

departs 5:32 PM CT · arrives 6:31 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

84% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
13%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at PIA that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ PIA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PIA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.81 in

ORD (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3565 · PIA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?