MQ 3573 · ORD → RAP

departs 9:44 AM CT · arrives 11:09 AM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at RAP more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts −36 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RAP?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ RAP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

RAP (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3573 · ORD → RAP

Odds over time

How late will it get to RAP?