MQ 3574 · RAP → ORD

departs 12:33 PM MT · arrives 3:47 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RAP (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.90 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3574 · RAP → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?