MQ 3578 · ORD → XNA

departs 7:05 PM CT · arrives 9:01 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

71% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at XNA that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

XNA (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3578 · ORD → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?