Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3583
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3583 · DFW → IAH
departs 2:33 PM CT · arrives 3:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 38%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
78%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
78%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
14%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 78% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
78%
Yes 78%
No 22%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 59% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
19%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
14%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at IAH that day
↑
2pm departures from DFW are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.