Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3607
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3607 · ORD → GSP
departs 8:35 PM CT · arrives 11:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 22%
Mon 10/5 14%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 64% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at GSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to GSP?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
8pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at GSP that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
GSP (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.