Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3621
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3621 · DFW → LEX
departs 1:55 PM CT · arrives 5:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 35%
Mon 10/5 15%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at LEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to LEX?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1 mi, 6.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
1pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LEX
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
LEX (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.