MQ 3629 · DFW → SDF

departs 2:02 PM CT · arrives 5:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1 mi, 6.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

SDF (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3629 · DFW → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?