MQ 3639 · BNA → TPA

departs 2:20 PM CT · arrives 5:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 2pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3639 · BNA → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?