MQ 3646 · ORD → TUL

departs 4:53 PM CT · arrives 6:49 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TUL?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUL that day

↓ TUL usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

TUL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.64 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3646 · ORD → TUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUL?