Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3649
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3649 · ORD → LSE
departs 10:05 AM CT · arrives 11:31 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 10%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 6%
Fri 10/9 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at LSE more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−35 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LSE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −35 pts in 24h
−35 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −23 pts in 24h
−23 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at LSE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −28 pts in 24h
−28 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to LSE?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
10am departures from ORD are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at LSE that day
↓
Other factors
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
LSE (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.