MQ 3650 · ORD → CHA

departs 7:42 PM CT · arrives 10:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at CHA more than 15 minutes late?

71% chance · ±3 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CHA?

On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CHA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

CHA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3650 · ORD → CHA

Odds over time

How late will it get to CHA?