Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3653
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
MQ 3653 · MAF → DFW
departs 5:23 PM CT · arrives 6:49 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 56%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±4 pts
−14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
20%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave MAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
20%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 2.0 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MAF
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MAF (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.98 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.