Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3658
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3658 · DFW → FWA
departs 8:10 PM CT · arrives 11:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 30%
Mon 10/5 12%
Wed 10/7 12%
Fri 10/9 13%
Sat 10/10 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at FWA more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
−13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FWA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at FWA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to FWA?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
8pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
FWA usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
FWA (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 8.8 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.