MQ 3689 · GSP → ORD

departs 7:26 AM ET · arrives 8:33 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↑ GSP is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP

↓ 7am departures from GSP are usually not late

Weather at each end

GSP (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.87 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3689 · GSP → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?