Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3699
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3699 · ORD → MLI
departs 11:30 PM CT · arrives 12:41 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 20%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 19%
Fri 10/9 12%
Sat 10/10 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?
65%
chance · ±0 pts
+28 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
65%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
43%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +28 pts in 24h
+28 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +24 pts in 24h
+24 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at MLI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +31 pts in 24h
+31 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to MLI?
On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
32%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MLI that day
↑
11pm departures from ORD are often late
↓
MLI usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
MLI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 1.50 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.