Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3706
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3706 · ORD → EVV
departs 10:36 PM CT · arrives 11:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at EVV more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+23 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EVV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at EVV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to EVV?
On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
10pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
EVV usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.93 in
EVV (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.