Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3717
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3717 · MSN → ORD
departs 6:43 PM CT · arrives 8:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 15%
Mon 10/5 14%
Fri 10/9 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
11%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 64% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 60% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MSN that day
↓
MSN usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MSN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.26 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.