Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3717
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3717 · ORD → MSN
departs 5:00 PM CT · arrives 6:12 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 27%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±0 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 64% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MSN usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.81 in
MSN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.