MQ 3732 · ORD → CID

departs 10:01 AM CT · arrives 11:08 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CID?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at CID that day

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↓ CID usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.93 in

CID (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3732 · ORD → CID

Odds over time

How late will it get to CID?