Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3740
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3740 · ORD → PIA
departs 5:15 PM CT · arrives 6:28 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIA more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
41%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Arrive at PIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to PIA?
On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at PIA that day
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↓
PIA usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.90 in
PIA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.79 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.