Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3740
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
MQ 3740 · PIA → ORD
departs 6:58 PM CT · arrives 8:28 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 27%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 31%
Wed 10/7 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
74%
chance · ±3 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
74%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
34%
Cancelled
23%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 73% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
74%
Yes 74%
No 26%
Leave PIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 59% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
20%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
23%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at PIA that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PIA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.81 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.