MQ 3742 · SAT → DFW

departs 7:05 PM CT · arrives 8:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

78% chance · ±13 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
14%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
37%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precip1.42 in

DFW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,233 ft Visibility5 mi Precip1.66 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3742 · SAT → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?