MQ 3757 · PHX → STS

departs 10:25 AM MT · arrives 12:37 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to STS?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into STS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3757 · PHX → STS

Odds over time

How late will it get to STS?